Category: Reverse Mortgage

Insure Sequence of Returns Risk with a HECM Mortgage

Post author By Robert Klein
Post date February 7, 2022

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This article was originally published in, and has been reprinted with permission from, Retirement Daily.

So here you are, crossing the threshold from earning a living to entering retirement. You worked hard for many years. You accumulated a sizeable, diversified investment portfolio. You purchased deferred income annuities to provide you with sustainable lifetime income. You hedged your bet with life insurance and long-term care insurance. Your will and other estate planning documents have been updated to reflect your current financial situation and goals. Everything’s in place for a financially successful retirement – or so you think.

Sequence of Returns Risk

What could possibly go wrong? Flashback to October, 2007 to March, 2009. After doubling in value from 7,200 to 14,200 in the five-year period beginning October 10, 2002 through October 11, 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted 7,700 points, or 54%, in just 17 months to a low of 6,500 on March 6, 2009.

Welcome to sequence of returns risk. They say there’s no greater teacher than first-hand experience. If you retired during those tumultuous 17 months and weren’t familiar with this dreaded investment risk, you were quickly immersed.

Sequence of returns risk is unique to the decumulation, or distribution, stage of retirement. The order of investment returns during this stage has an impact on how long a portfolio will last, especially if a fixed amount is being withdrawn. Negative returns in the first few years of retirement, if not protected, can significantly increase the possibility of portfolio depletion.

This article is particularly timely given the fact that the DJIA, which was at 35,600 when it was written, or about 1,000 points less than its November 8th record high of 36,565, is up over 29,000 points, or 448%, from its low of 6,500 on March 6, 2009. This translates to an average annualized return of 35%. Furthermore, there have been only two small down years since 2008: 2.2% in 2015 and 5.6% in 2018.

Three Sequence of Returns Risk Hypothetical Scenarios

Let’s illustrate sequence of returns risk with an example using three hypothetical scenarios, each of which includes the following five assumptions:

Retirement age: 65
Life expectancy: age 90
Initial portfolio value: $1 million
Annual withdrawals: 5% of the initial portfolio value, or $50,000, increasing by 3% each year
Average rate of return: 7%

Please keep in mind that none of the scenarios considers the investment account type, i.e., non-retirement, Roth, or taxable retirement, nor potential federal and state income tax liability associated with taxable investment income, realized gains, and distributions from the account.

Scenario #1 – 7% Return Each Year

Although a scenario with the same rate of return each year throughout retirement never occurs in real life, it’s often used for illustration purposes. After taking withdrawals of $50,000 in the first year of retirement that more than double to $105,000 in the final year, the portfolio in Scenario #1 remains intact, decreasing from a value of $1 million at age 65 to $924,000 at age 90.

Scenario #2 – Good Early Years

The positive returns during the first 12 years, most of which are double-digit, enable the portfolio in Scenario #2 to increase in value from $1 million to almost $3 million at age 87 before three consecutive negative years reduce it to $1.8 million at age 90. This is double the value of $924,000 in Scenario #1 despite the fact that the average rate of return during the same period is identical, i.e., 7%.

Scenario #3 – Bad Early Years

Scenario #3 reverses the order of investment returns in Scenario #2, with negative returns of 18%, 12%, and 3% in the first three years, respectively. This reduces the portfolio value by $430,000, or 43%, going from $1 million to $570,000 in just three years at age 67. Despite the fact that the investment return in 12 of the next 14 years is positive and the average return from age 65 to 81 is a respectable 5%, the portfolio is depleted at age 81. Once again, the average rate of return is 7%.

Potential Solution – Maintain Withdrawals of $50,000 in All Years

In hindsight, the longevity of the investment portfolio in Scenario #3 could have been extended, and depletion avoided, had withdrawals not increased by 3% each year and simply remained at $50,000 for the duration of retirement. This is illustrated in Scenario #4 – Bad Early Years with Withdrawals of $50,000 Each Year.

The downside of Scenario #4 is the loss of purchasing power due to inflation. Assuming average annual inflation of 3%, purchasing power of the age 65 withdrawal of $50,000 is reduced by $27,000, or 54%, to $23,000 at age 90.

Scenario #4 is far from a perfect solution in real life. Assuming that it’s necessary to increase annual withdrawals by 3% each year to maintain the individual’s lifestyle, other sources of income would be required to support her financial needs. This might necessitate the sale of her house, assuming she is a homeowner, and associated downsizing.

Not to mention the fact that portfolio depletion could still occur if the individual lives past age 90. This is more likely if investment returns are unfavorable in one or more of those years or if she experiences an uninsured or underinsured long term care event.

HECM Reverse Mortgage – Insurance for Sequence of Returns Risk

A proactive planning solution that can be used strategically by homeowners beginning at age 62 to insure against sequence of returns risk is a home equity conversion mortgage, otherwise known as a HECM reverse mortgage. I recommend that you read Not Your Father’s Reverse Mortgage to familiarize yourself with HECMs and 5 Key Financial Metrics When Evaluating a HECM Reverse Mortgage to learn about an objective process for analyzing a HECM in any situation.

While there are several potential strategic uses of a HECM, one of the most, if not the most, important is to insure against sequence of returns risk. This is due to the fact that sequence of returns risk, by definition, is applicable to the first few years of retirement. The risk of portfolio depletion, if not protected, can increase significantly in the event that negative returns are experienced during this critical period.

How a HECM Reverse Mortgage Can Insure Against Sequence of Returns Risk

The best way to illustrate how a HECM reverse mortgage can insure against sequence of returns risk is with an example. In addition to the five assumptions used in Scenarios #1, #2, and #3, Scenario #5 – Bad Early Years with HECM Mortgage includes the following 13 assumptions:

Apply for HECM at age 62.
No mortgage when applying for HECM mortgage.
Appraised home value of $1 million with assumed annual appreciation of 4%.
HECM mortgage of 48.64% of the maximum 2021 FHA claim, or insurable, amount of $822,375, or $400,000, is approved.
Initial mortgage insurance premium of 2% of $822,375, or $16,448.
Initial loan amount is $25,000, which is equal to the total closing costs, including mortgage insurance premium of $16,448, origination fee of $6,000, and other closing costs totaling $2,552.
HECM mortgage variable interest rate of 3.5% with a ceiling of 8.5%.
Interest rate of 3.5% remains unchanged for the life of the loan.
Annual mortgage insurance premium of 0.5% of the outstanding balance.
No payments made on the HECM mortgage.
Initial credit line of $375,000 (approved mortgage of $400,000 less initial loan amount of $25,000).
Credit line variable interest rate of 3.5% with a ceiling of 8.5%.
100% of all withdrawals are taken from the credit line in years in which the investment account return is negative.

Per Scenario #5, withdrawals totaling $154,545 are taken from the HECM credit line instead of from the investment account from age 65 through age 67 when returns are -18%, -12%, and -3%, respectively. Withdrawals of $61,494 and $73,427 are also taken from the HECM credit line at age 72 and 78, respectively, when returns are -2% and -6%. Withdrawals from the HECM credit line total $289,465.

The strategy of taking tax-free withdrawals from the HECM credit line instead of the investment account in negative years results in the preservation of the investment account for the life of the plan. The effectiveness of this strategy in this scenario is supported by the following additional facts:

The strategic withdrawals from the HECM credit line totaling $289,000 during the five negative return years, including $155,000 in the first three years, enabled the investment account to sustain itself for the duration of the plan.
Whereas 100% of the HECM credit line withdrawals totaling $289,000 were tax-free, the investment account withdrawals during the same period in the non-HECM plan were fully taxable as ordinary income assuming a non-Roth retirement investment account and were potentially taxable as capital gains in a non-retirement account.
The HECM credit line resulted in withdrawals from the investment account and credit line totaling $1.927 million ($1.638 million from the investment account plus $289,000 from the HECM credit line), or $845,000 more than the total withdrawals of $1.082 million in the non-HECM plan in Scenario #3.
The investment account value in the HECM plan was $586,000 when the non-HECM investment account was depleted at age 81.
The investment account value in the HECM plan was $110,000 at age 90.
Despite the fact that withdrawals from the HECM credit line totaled $289,000, the credit line, which had a balance of $375,000 at age 62, increased to $419,000 at age 90.
The combined balance of the investment account of $110,000 and HECM credit line of $419,000 resulted in total liquidity of $529,000 at age 90.

Cost of HECM Mortgage

The foregoing benefits associated with the HECM plan did not occur without cost. Obtaining insurance against sequence of returns risk and associated depletion of the investment portfolio came at a cost of $742,000, which was the amount of the HECM mortgage balance at age 90.

The HECM plan cost of $742,000 was well worth it when you consider the fact that the investment portfolio was intact at age 90 vs. depleted at age 81 in Scenario #3. Four other factors supporting the HECM strategy are as follows:

Additional withdrawals of $845,000, $289,000 of which was tax-free.
Liquidity of $529,000 at age 90.
$419,000 of liquidity was in the HECM credit line which could have been used strategically for other purposes, including paying for long term care needs.
Appreciation of the house of $2.119 million (value of $3.119 million at age 90 less $1 million at age 65) exceeds the mortgage balance of $742,000 by $1.377 million.

Two essential keys to this successful outcome include the fact that the HECM mortgage was obtained at age 62, the first year of eligibility, and there was no existing mortgage balance. This accomplished two things: (a) maximization of the HECM credit line and (b) minimization of the HECM mortgage balance.

Conclusion

Negative returns in the first few years of retirement, if not protected from sequence of returns risk, can significantly increase the possibility of premature portfolio depletion. A HECM mortgage, with its accompanying credit line, provides tax-free liquidity during this critical period to insure against this risk in lieu of taking potentially taxable distributions from an investment account that’s declining in value.

The proposed strategy enables you to ride out the storm whenever there are downturns in the market. It protects you from the temptation to sell when the market is on its way down and attempting to time the market when buying back in, both of which are generally losing propositions. All of this translates to peace of mind during the most critical stage of retirement, i.e., the first few years, that can last for the duration of retirement with proper planning.

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6 Proven Retirement Income Planning Strategies Beginning at Age 62

Post author By Robert Klein
Post date January 17, 2022

This article was originally published in, and has been reprinted with permission from, Retirement Daily.

When you contemplate your life, you can usually pinpoint pivotal moments that changed the trajectory of who you are today. Often times, there are one or more magical moments that you will never forget.

In the retirement planning world, age 62 is that moment. Until then, you accumulate assets for some unspecified future date when you will transition from working full time to perhaps part time, and then, in most cases, fully retire. Your primary source of income, i.e., employment, will eventually come to a grinding halt.

Beginning at age 62, several things will begin to quickly unfold that will require you to change your retirement planning mindset from asset to income accumulation. You will need to figure out how to convert the assets that you worked hard to save into a predictable income stream beginning on a specified date, or within a range of dates, that will enable you to match your projected financial needs in retirement. Furthermore, you will need to develop various strategies for creating after-tax retirement income in order to optimize the longevity of your assets for the rest of your life. Needless to say, this is no small task.

This article provides an overview of six proven strategies that can be implemented beginning at age 62 that are at the core of the transition from retirement asset to retirement income planning. Strategies #4 and #5 should be considered before age 62 whenever possible and strategy #6 when applicable. Most important, all potential strategies should be evaluated as part of a holistic retirement income plan.

Strategy #1: Defer Social Security Start Date

You can start your Social Security retirement benefits as early as age 62 or as late as age 70. Unless you’re no longer working and have no other sources of income or you have a life-threatening illness, it generally isn’t advisable to start receiving Social Security at age 62. This is due to the fact that benefits may be 30 percent less than what they would be at your full retirement age which is between 66 and 67 depending upon the year you were born.

Your Social Security benefits will increase by 8% per year plus cost-of-living adjustments for each year that you defer your start date between full retirement age and age 70. Social Security can be used to insure your, and, if married, your spouse’s longevity risk.

The decision regarding when to begin receiving Social Security retirement benefits should be carefully analyzed, especially if you’re married. In addition to locking in the amount of your benefit, you are also potentially establishing the amount of your spouse’s monthly payment in the event that you die first.

Strategy #2: Gain Unrestricted Access to Home Equity

As discussed in my 5 Key Financial Metrics When Evaluating a HECM Reverse Mortgage article, housing wealth, although it represents about one half of an average household’s net worth, is often ignored as a retirement income planning tool. There are numerous strategies that can be used to provide readily available tax-free liquidity to pay for planned and unforeseen expenses throughout retirement by monetizing a portion of the equity in one’s home.

Several of the strategies can be used in conjunction with home equity conversion mortgages, or HECMs, the most popular reverse mortgage program. You can qualify for a HECM beginning at age 62. All homeowners age 62 or older with or without a mortgage should evaluate a potential HECM for its ability to provide unrestricted access to an increasing tax-free line of credit without the downsides of a home equity line of credit, or HELOC.

When implemented early and used strategically to unlock illiquid home equity, a HECM reverse mortgage can be used to increase after-tax cash flow at opportune times throughout retirement while providing peace of mind.

Strategy #3: Reduce Medicare Part B and D Premiums

Medicare Part B and D premiums are determined using modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) from your federal income tax return two years prior to the current year. Assuming you enroll in Medicare when you become eligible at age 65, your MAGI from two years prior, or age 63, will determine your Medicare premiums at 65. 2021 Medicare Part B monthly premiums range from $148.50 to $504.90 per person depending upon tax filing status and 2019 MAGI

Medicare Part B and D premium planning should begin at age 62 when you’re one year away from having your income determine your premiums when you turn 65. You should incorporate the Medicare income brackets into your income tax projections every year for the rest of your life to determine the amount of your projected Medicare Part B and D monthly premiums. Using this information, you can develop strategies to reduce your projected MAGI and associated premiums.

You need to always keep in mind when planning Medicare premium reduction strategies that it’s a year-by-year proposition given the fact that premiums are determined using your MAGI from two years prior to the current year. If your income in a particular year is projected to experience an unusual spike that’s attributable to a one-time or infrequent event that will otherwise optimize your projected after-tax retirement income for several years, it will usually make sense to pay the increased Medicare Part B and D premiums in that year. Examples include a sizable strategic or market-sensitive Roth IRA conversion or an unusual increase in a business owner’s income that will enable a larger qualified business income (QBI) deduction that will result in a large amount of income tax savings.

Strategy #4: Roth IRA Conversion Window of Opportunity

A multi-year, or staged, Roth IRA conversion strategy is a great example of a retirement income planning technique that should ideally be implemented beginning 20 years before retirement. A ten-year window of opportunity begins at age 62 for doing a Roth IRA conversion, creating a greater sense of urgency for implementing this strategy. This corresponds to the ten years prior to the age 72 commencement of lifetime annual required minimum distributions, or RMDs, from retirement plans.

Roth IRA conversions beginning at age 62 will reduce your annual RMDs for the rest of your life. This can, in turn, potentially reduce your annual taxable income, Medicare Part B and D premiums, taxable Social Security benefits, and net investment income tax. To the extent that this occurs, this will increase after-tax retirement income and contribute to the overall goal of optimizing asset longevity. Reduced RMDs also reduce the survivor’s exposure to the widow(er)’s income tax penalty for couples.

Reduced RMDs can also reduce the value of taxable retirement plan accounts at death and, in turn, reduce taxable income for non-spouse beneficiaries. Given the fact that most non-spouse beneficiaries are subject to a 10-year payout rule for taking distributions from retirement plans and IRA accounts, a reduction in the value of taxable accounts will often result in less tax liability for children and other non-spouse beneficiaries.

Per Strategy #3, taxable income from Roth IRA conversions needs to be balanced against potential higher Medicare Part B and D premiums beginning at age 63. The reduction in RMDs and associated lifetime income tax savings beginning at age 72 can more than offset increased Medicare Part B and D premiums between age 63 and 72 if done strategically.

Strategy #5: Lock in Sustainable and Potentially Tax-Favored Lifetime Income

The fifth strategy – locking in sustainable and potentially tax-favored lifetime income, has gained in popularity as a result of the virtual demise of corporate pension plans. Besides Social Security, opportunities for receiving a sustainable lifetime income stream with built-in longevity insurance to reduce the risks associated with the stock market have dwindled in the private sector.

Immediate and deferred fixed income annuities are a natural fit for filling this gap in a holistic retirement income plan beginning at any age. Purchase of fixed income annuities takes on more urgency at age 62 due to the fact that the income start date for the majority of fixed income annuities will occur by age 72, leaving less time for deferred growth and increased lifetime income. The income start date is subject to the RMD rules when purchases are made from qualified accounts and traditional IRAs.

Income optimization is the appropriate benchmark that should be used when evaluating fixed income annuities for inclusion in a retirement income plan. The goal is to design a comprehensive strategy that uses the least amount of assets to purchase the greatest amount of sustainable after-tax lifetime income that’s projected to pay for expenses not covered by Social Security, pensions, and distributions from investment and other assets.

Fixed income annuities come in three flavors: single premium immediate annuities (SPIAs), deferred income annuities (DIAs), and fixed index annuities (FIAs) with income riders. SPIAs and DIAs enjoy a unique income tax advantage when purchased in a nonqualified, or nonretirement account.

Unlike FIAs with income riders that distribute ordinary income that’s fully taxable, SPIAs and DIAs are annuitized. Periodic payments include income and a return of premium, or investment. When held in a nonqualified account, the return of premium portion of each payment, which can be 50% or greater, is nontaxable. Once 100% of one’s investment has been received, future payments are fully taxable.

Strategy #6: Achieve Sizable Tax Savings and Tax-Favored Lifetime Income When Selling Highly Appreciated Nonretirement Assets

The sixth strategy, although it can be used by anyone at any time, tends to be implemented by individuals in their 60’s. Generally speaking, they’re the ones with highly appreciated nonretirement assets who are looking for a tax-favored lifetime income exit plan. This includes real estate, investment securities, and businesses.

This strategy is designed to reduce or eliminate income tax liability attributable to the capital gain that owners will realize from the sale of the highly appreciated asset by transferring a portion, or all, of the ownership of the asset from one or more individuals to a charitable remainder trust, or CRT, prior to the sale while providing tax-favored lifetime income. A CRT, which is a tax-exempt trust, is a long-standing IRS-blessed strategy when properly structured.

There are six benefits associated with a CRT:

The capital gain on the sale of assets owned by a CRT is exempt from taxation.
CRT funding creates a sizable income tax deduction equal to the projected remainder interest of the CRT that will eventually pass to one or more charities.
The proceeds from the sale of CRT assets can be reinvested to provide a lifetime income stream for the beneficiaries.
Most of a CRT’s annual income will be taxed at favorable long-term capital gains tax rates.
A CRT is an excellent philanthropic tool since the remainder interest of the assets will be distributed to one or more chosen charities following the death of the surviving lifetime income beneficiaries.
CRT assets avoid estate tax.

Six Proven Strategies

The six strategies that are highlighted in this article are proven strategies for creating and optimizing after-tax retirement income that can individually and collectively prolong the longevity of one’s assets in retirement. Each strategy can be implemented beginning at age 62 as part of a holistic retirement income plan.

Deferring Social Security start date (strategy #1) is a time-sensitive strategy. Once you start receiving Social Security, with some limited exceptions, it’s an irrevocable decision that, with the exception of potential cost of living adjustments, will lock in the amount of your periodic and lifetime payments and can also affect your spouse’s payments.

Gaining unrestricted access to home equity (strategy #2) through a HECM reverse mortgage should be implemented at age 62, the qualifying age, whenever possible to optimize the growth of, and after-tax distributions from, the credit line. Planning for reducing Medicare Part B and D premiums (strategy #3), which is an annual strategy, should be implemented beginning at age 62 since income from your federal income tax return beginning at age 63 will be used to determine your Medicare Part B and D premiums when you’re 65.

Roth IRA Conversions (strategy #4) and locking in sustainable and potentially tax-favored income (strategy #5) should be considered before age 62 whenever possible since there’s no restriction on the start date and earlier vs. later implementation can optimize after-tax lifetime income in retirement.

Achieving sizable tax savings and tax-favored lifetime income when selling highly appreciated nonretirement assets (strategy #6) is dependent upon (a) owning highly appreciated assets such as real estate, investment securities, or a business and (b) a desire to sell those assets.

Let the magic begin!

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5 Key Financial Metrics When Evaluating a HECM Reverse Mortgage

Post author By Robert Klein
Post date December 27, 2021

Home loan / reverse mortgage or transforming assets into cash concept : House model, US dollar notes on a simple balance scale, depicts a homeowner or a borrower turns properties / residence into cash

This article was originally published in, and has been reprinted with permission from, Retirement Daily.

Housing wealth, although it represents about one half of an average household’s net worth, is often ignored as a retirement income planning tool. There are numerous strategies that can be used to provide readily available tax-free liquidity to pay for planned and unforeseen expenses throughout retirement by monetizing a portion of the equity in one’s home.

Several of the strategies are offered by home equity conversion mortgages, or HECMs, which is the most popular reverse mortgage program and is offered and insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). You can qualify for a HECM beginning at age 62.

If you aren’t familiar with HECMs or simply need a refresher, I recommend that you read my June 10, 2020 Retirement Daily article, Not Your Father’s Reverse Mortgage. The biggest change since I wrote the article is an increase in FHA’s HECM lending limit from $765,600 in 2020 to $822,375 in 2021.

HECM Unlocks Home Equity Without the Downsides of a HELOC

A HECM is designed to unlock home equity for homeowners as needed through a readily available credit line without the downsides of a home equity line of credit, or HELOC. These include access for a specified number of years – typically ten, required minimum monthly payments, lender can freeze or cancel the loan, home is subject to foreclosure if minimum payments aren’t paid, and a requirement to repay the loan in full even if the borrower owes more than the home is worth. Perhaps most important, you may not qualify for a HELOC when you’re retired if your sources of income for repayment are limited.

All homeowners with or without a mortgage should evaluate a potential HECM beginning at age 62 since this is the eligible age. An evaluation should be done whenever contemplating refinancing or purchasing a new home or planning for other major financial changes. Whatever the situation, a HECM can increase cash flow, reduce expenses, and increase retirement savings.

The HECM Pentathlon

There are five key financial metrics that should be analyzed individually and collectively when considering a HECM. Just like a track and field pentathlon, you don’t need to score high in every event to win the gold medal. You may bask in glory after finishing low in the shot put, excelling in the 800 meters and 60-meter hurdles, and performing in the 75th percentile in the high jump and long jump.

Side-by-side projections of existing or potential refinancing of forward, or traditional, mortgages with one or more HECM scenarios applying each of the five metrics for the next 20 years should be prepared. This will enable you to evaluate the pros and cons of a HECM in your situation.

The remainder of this article will use three hypothetical scenarios to illustrate each of the five financial metrics. Please refer to Hypothetical Scenario List of Assumptions below for a list of assumptions used in the various scenarios.

Please keep in mind that the “Mortgage” scenario in each illustration refers to a forward, or traditional, mortgage. Please also note that the assumed increasing interest rates that are used to calculate accrued interest on projected HECM loan and credit line balances are greater than FHA’s “expected,” or initial, interest rate that’s required to be illustrated for the life of a loan on a projected amortization schedule when applying for a HECM.

Metric #1: Projected Mortgage Balance

Most people entering retirement who own a home still have a mortgage, home equity loan, or outstanding HELOC balance. Many of these won’t be paid off for 10 to 20 years. Even if you have a minimal or no mortgage balance, you should consider a HECM if access to tax-free liquidity is or will be important to you during retirement.

There are two primary advantages of a HECM over a forward, or traditional, mortgage: (a) no required loan payments and (b) ongoing access to a tax-free line of credit that increases by the loan interest rate and elective payments.

Traditional mortgage balance of $300,572, with assumed monthly payments of $1,600, is paid down over 20 years, with a projected balance of $21,985 at age 82.
HECM #1 balance of $325,572, which assumes no payments, increases to a projected balance of $807,340 at age 82.
HECM #2 balance of $325,572, with assumed monthly payments of $1,600, is paid down over 20 years, with a projected balance of $124,749 at age 82.

Winner: Traditional mortgage by approximately $103,000 over HECM #2 and $785,000 over HECM #1

Metric #2: Projected Savings

Whenever you’re making mortgage payments, whether it’s on a traditional mortgage or electively on a HECM, you’re decreasing the amount that you could otherwise be saving. Likewise, when you don’t make payments on a HECM, which is what most people do, you have the opportunity to save money that would otherwise be used to make mortgage payments.

Required traditional mortgage monthly payments of $1,600 reduces savings by $19,200 a year, or a total of $384,000 over 20 years.
HECM #1, which assumes no payments over the first 20 years, results in annual savings of $19,200, or a total of $384,000 over 20 years.
Elective HECM #2 monthly payments of $1,600 produces the same result as a traditional mortgage, i.e., annual savings reduction of $19,200, with a total of $384,000 over 20 years.

Winner: HECM #1 by $768,000 over traditional mortgage and HECM #2

Metric #3: Projected Net Worth

Projected net worth as it relates to the evaluation of a HECM is equal to the total of the projected mortgage or HECM balance, projected savings balance, and projected home value each year. The projected mortgage or HECM balance needs to be shown as a negative amount since loans reduce net worth.

Traditional mortgage projected net worth increases from $599,428 to $1,566,026 at the end of 20 years.
HECM #1 projected net worth, which assumes no payments, increases from $574,428 to $1,548,671 after 20 years.
HECM #2, projected net worth, which assumes monthly payments of $1,600 totaling $384,000, increases from $574,428 to $1,463,262 after 20 years.

Winner: Traditional mortgage by approximately $17,000 over HECM #1 and $103,000 over HECM #2

Metric #4: Projected Line of Credit

As previously stated, one of the primary advantages of a HECM over a forward, or traditional, mortgage is ongoing access to a tax-free line of credit. Once again, the line of credit increases by the loan interest rate and elective payments.

As discussed in the “Reverse Mortgages No Longer a Program of Last Resort” section in my Not Your Father’s Reverse Mortgage article, research by Dr. Wade Pfau has shown that applying for a HECM earlier and using the HECM line of credit strategically throughout retirement can potentially increase retirement spending and provide for a larger legacy.

Both HECMs in the hypothetical scenario are illustrated with no credit line advances for the first 20 years to keep the illustrations simple. This results in a projected increasing line of credit for the duration of the illustration. Any advances from the credit line would reduce the projected line of credit balance.

Traditional mortgage has no line of credit.
HECM #1 projected line of credit, which assumes no payments, grows by the assumed interest rate, which begins at 2% and increases gradually to 5.5% in years 17 to 20, causing it to grow from $86,188 to $213,725 at the end of 20 years.
HECM #2 projected line of credit, in addition to growing by the assumed interest rate, also increases by the monthly payments of $1,600, resulting in a tenfold increase from $86,188 to $895,316 after 20 years.

Winner: HECM #2 by approximately $681,000 over HECM #1 and $895,000 over the traditional mortgage

Metric #5: Projected Liquidity

Metrics #4 – projected line of credit and #5 – projected liquidity, when evaluated together, are the most compelling criterion favoring the use of a HECM as a retirement income planning tool for prolonging the longevity of retirement assets.

Projected liquidity is equal to the total of projected savings (metric #2) plus projected line of credit (metric #4). The ability to readily access funds from savings as a result of not making mortgage payments and/or from a readily available tax-free credit line during one’s retirement years, especially when alternative sources of income may be scarce or nonexistent, distinguishes HECMs as a unique planning solution.

Illustration #5 – Projected Liquidity

Since there is no credit line available with a traditional mortgage, projected liquidity decreases by the amount of projected savings which is -$19,200 per year, or -$384,000 after 20 years.
HECM #1 savings is projected to increase by $19,200 per year as a result of no credit line payments, or a total of $384,000 after 20 years. The credit line is projected to increase from $86,188 to $213,725 during the same period. Combining the two results in projected liquidity of $597,725 at the end of year 20.
HECM #2’s monthly payments of $1,600, or $19,200 a year reduce projected savings by $384,000 after 20 years. The credit line, however, is projected to increase from $86,188 to $895,316 during the same period, resulting in projected liquidity of $511,316 at the end of year 20.

Winner: HECM #1 by approximately $87,000 over HECM #2 and $982,000 over the traditional mortgage

Illustration HECM Pentathlon Overall Winner

As stated in the beginning of the “HECM Pentathlon” section, there are five key financial metrics that should be analyzed individually and collectively when considering a HECM. Just like a track and field pentathlon, the overall winner is determined by the highest total score for all five events.

Assuming that a score of 5 points is assigned for 1st place, 3 points for 2nd, and 1 point for 3rd, the overall winner of the Illustration HECM Pentathlon with a total score of 17 points is HECM #1. (The crowd goes wild!) Traditional mortgage and HECM #2 tie for 2nd place with a total score of 13 points each.

Illustration HECM Pentathlon 1st Place – HECM #1 demonstrates the importance of analyzing all five metrics together. If you focus only on the mortgage balance, which is projected to increase from $326,000 to $807,000 in 20 years, you would never choose HECM #1. When you factor in projected savings and liquidity, both of which finished in 1st place, together with projected net worth and credit line, with both finishing in 2nd place, you have your HECM pentathlon overall winner.

Caution: It isn’t prudent to select a winner based on score alone in the HECM Pentathlon. This is a starting point and may not be the best option for you. If, for example, your priority is to have the highest line of credit with a large amount of liquidity 20 years from now to pay for potential long-term care expenses using tax-free funds, HECM #2 would be your clear choice provided that you’re comfortable with continuing to pay $1,600 per month for 20 years despite the fact that there’s no payment requirement with a HECM. As a reminder, assuming you remain in your home, you were planning on doing this anyway with your existing mortgage.

Per Illustration HECM Pentathlon 2nd Place – HECM #2, by continuing to pay $1,600 per month, or a total of $384,000 over 20 years, HECM #2 credit line balance is projected to be $895,000 in 20 years, or $681,000 greater than projected HECM #1 balance of $214,000. Projected HECM #2 liquidity is projected to be $511,000, or only $87,000 less than HECM #1 projected liquidity of $598,000. HECM #2 net worth is projected to be $1.463 million, or only $86,000 less than HECM #1 projected net worth of $1.549 million.

The fact that HECM #2 mortgage balance is projected to be $125,000, or $103,000 greater than the projected balance of $22,000 of your current traditional mortgage should be less of a concern, especially when you consider the fact that there’s no line of credit and your liquidity is projected to be -$384,000 in 20 years if you keep your current mortgage.

A HECM Isn’t for Everyone

Despite the fact that a HECM is a wonderful tool for unlocking home equity, it isn’t a good solution in every situation. One example would be if you’re planning on selling your home in the next five years. The initial costs associated with a HECM would generally not be justified in this case. You could, however, potentially use a HECM for purchase strategy when you sell your home if you buy a replacement home if that makes financial sense.

Also, individuals who (a) are focused only on paying off their traditional mortgage, (b) have already paid off their mortgage and are unwilling to borrow against their home, or (c) are unable to justify the value of having ready access to an increasing tax-free credit line during their retirement years relative to the initial costs aren’t good candidates for a HECM reverse mortgage.

Summary

A HECM can furnish you with a one-of-a-kind tool to unlock illiquid home equity, providing unfettered access to tax-free funds when you’re likely to need them the most, i.e., in your retirement years, without the downsides associated with a HELOC. The combination of no required loan payments and ongoing access to a tax-free line of credit that increases by the loan interest rate and elective payments is unique.

This article introduces a process for analyzing a potential HECM in any situation. The process includes five financial metrics that can, and should be, used individually and collectively to analyze the pros and cons of unlocking home equity. The inclusion of projected credit line advances to pay for one or more strategic outlays, e.g., projected long-term care expenses, would complete the analysis.

When the value of a HECM as a retirement income planning solution is understood, implemented early in retirement, and used strategically to unlock illiquid home equity, a HECM reverse mortgage can be used to increase after-tax cash flow at opportune times throughout retirement while providing peace of mind.